Voice and SMS over LTE

Expected... pending standards

At the 4G world yesterday, AT&T outlined their LTE, and consequently their voice over LTE, plans.  

This is my favorite slide, the one that says "VoLTE in 2013", with the GIANT CAVEAT "Expected pending standards".

Does that mean they have actually committed to a technology which still isn't defined?  Of course there are many, many IMS/SIP/VoIP specs floating around, but if I were a vendor for this solution, I'd be a little nervous. 

Notice that Verizon, in their announcements at CTIA, simply declined to talk about voice over LTE.  CS Fallback is still a lot of work, and VoLTE/IMS is still a long ways out.  

I wonder if Verizon's VoLTE will work with AT&T's VoLTE...  

Voice (over LTE) losing relevance for teens

For those who have followed my posts, you'll know that I believe things are very different for the new generation.  I'm an old guy, I still believe in things like email and phone calls.  Heck, I still have a fixed line at my house.  

But for teens/twenties today, along with my pre-teen kids, the world is already much different... especially when considering how they use a mobile phone.  One only has to read the reviews of some of the cool new devices to understand these are mobile internet terminals, not phones (EVO review:  no mention of voice at all)

An article titled "Teens crazy for texting, but losing interest in voice calls" covers new research by the Nielsen company on how people in general use their mobile phones.  

There is particularly distressing stats in the article:

On average, teens used 14% fewer voice minutes than they did just one year ago

This chart shows the drop in just one year.  The new generation is leading the trend.  

When asked why they choice to text versus make a phone call, 22% said it was 'easier' and 20% said it was faster.  

Even more dramatic, the article points out a CTIA study which shows that in 2006 the average mobile phone call was 3 minutes, and today it's 1.67 minutes.  I don't believe that's specific to teens.  

To me, this represents a huge trend in the future of communications.   The reality is that over the next 10 years the number of voice minutes will begin to drop across the board.  

So why are operators preparing to spend billions of dollars on fancy new IMS voice systems?  There's no way to justify the return on investment -- especially with Skype waiting in the wings.  

 

 

 

 

 

Skype: The S1

I've often wondered about Skype and how impressive their service really is.  

The pending IPO gives us all the opportunity to peer into their S1.

The stats I wanted:

• 560 million registered users
• 124 million average monthly connected users (I guess this is people who regularly use the service)
• 95 billion minutes of voice and video calls
• 40% of calls involve video

In the first six months of 2010, the company generated $406m in revenues.  Impressive.  

I mentioned in an earlier post I believe they have a great opportunity with Verizon's LTE network.  Verizon will have the UScovered in three years with an ultra-low latency, high speed mobile IP network.

Verizon said they will be showing phones at CES 2010 (3 months from now), and yet there's no official LTE voice service.  The platform is wide open, and I think Skpe could quickly become the defacto LTE voice service offer.  

 

Verizon: 38 markets and no voice

One of the biggest stories from the CTIA show last week was Verizon’s announcement of its 38 launch markets.  

Lowell McAdam, COO and soon to be CEO of Verizon, spoke with pride about the upcoming LTE launch.  He said that the first 38 markets will cover about 1/3 of the US population.  He expects VZW to have 100% of their POPs built out for LTE in 3 years.

As for the network, it’s equally impressive.  I believe Mr. McAdam said they received 5-10mbp sustained data rates in the field.  Plus, the network had just 30msec of latency.  

Very impressive.

Later in another press conference, Mr. McAdam did say that they would not have voice on the LTE network, and they will rely on CDMA for voice.  (It wasn’t clear how long this would be the case, but certainly they are racing to get voice on LTE completed).  

If I were Skype, I’d be paying the Verizon engineers to build LTE faster.  

This is the opening Skype has been looking for.  An ultra-fast, mobile IP network, which will have coast-to-coast coverage at 700 mhz.  

Skype has clients for all the major smartphone OSs.  It offers free Skype-Skype calls.  It offers Skype to Skype video calls for no cost.  It’s got a robust platform independent PC client.  Users can get a PSTN phone number with a voice mail box and the ability to send SMS.  

Put a Skype client on your Verizon LTE phone and there’s no need for Verizon’s voice service.